Existential Risk: Ukraine Using U.S. and U.K. Long Range Missiles Inside Russia

By Victor Sperandeo with the Curmudgeon

Introduction and Overview:

U.S. President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer met at the White House on Friday, September 13^th reaffirming their support for Ukraine. There’s been intense speculation that the two allies would supply Ukraine with long range missile to strike deeper inside Russia.

“The United States is committed to standing with you to help Ukraine as it defends against Russia’s onslaught of aggression,” Biden told Starmer at the outset of their meeting. “It’s clear that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will not prevail in this war. The people of Ukraine will prevail.”

Starmer said it was vital that the two allied nations work in tandem. “I think the next few weeks and months could be crucial, very, very important, that we support Ukraine in this vital war of freedom,” the UK prime minister said.

However, the two leaders did NOT reveal if they would arm Ukraine with such long range missiles – an advanced version of the ATACMS [1.] from the U.S. and the Storm Shadow [2.] from the UK.

Note 1. The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is a supersonic tactical ballistic missile designed and manufactured by former U.S defense company Ling-Temco-Vought (LTV), and later Lockheed Martin through acquisitions.

Note 2. The Storm Shadow is a long-range, air-launched cruise missile co-developed by the UK and France. It has a range of around 500 km and has been integrated into Ukrainian fighter jets, including the Su-24 bombers.

ATACMS launch. Photo: U.S. Army

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Sidebar: Missiles Ukraine Can Use Now

Ukraine already has supplies of long-range missiles from the UK, the United States and France, but it is only allowed to fire them at targets within its own borders.

On May 30^th, the AP reported that the U.S. permitted Ukraine to use American weaponry to strike inside Russia for the limited purpose of defending Kharkiv, according to four U.S. officials familiar with the matter. Indeed, Ukraine has received and used ATACMS missiles, but only for defensive purposes.

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters on April 25^th that ATACMS missiles were first shipped as part of the March 12^th “presidential drawdown authority package,” which came about after the Pentagon discovered $300 million in unaccounted-for cost savings. “They are now in Ukraine and have been in Ukraine for some time. They arrived there before the supplemental was done,” he said.

However, the U.S. policy calling on Ukraine not to use American-provided ATACMS or long-range missiles and other munitions to strike offensively inside Russia has not changed. At least not yet.

Potential Targets Within Russia:

Ukraine President Zelensky has been pleading for months for these restrictions to be lifted so Ukraine can use them offensively against targets inside Russia.

· Ukraine Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in August that he had presented the U.S. with a list of proposed targets within Russia.

· A report from the Institute for the Study of War last month identified "no fewer than 245 known Russian military and paramilitary sites" within the 300-kilometer range of U.S.-supplied ATACMS, which is currently the furthest range of any Western supplied missiles available to Ukraine.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Update:

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy told the BBC on Sunday that it was important that countries supporting Ukraine had "a shared strategy to win." He refused to confirm whether the UK and its allies were planning to allow missiles to be used against targets in Russia, but added:

"This is under careful discussion with the Ukrainians, as we assess what they need as they head into the winter."

Lammy said the UK and other allies would be meeting Ukraine President Zelensky at the United Nations General Assembly in New York in less than 12 days and suggested the issue would be discussed there.

……………………………………………………………………………………….

Russia’s Stark Warning:

Russia President Vladimir Putin said that if Ukraine were to fire Western missiles into Russia, he would treat it as an attack of war by NATO and would respond accordingly. “If this decision is made, it will mean nothing other than the direct involvement of NATO states, European states, in the war in Ukraine,” Putin said in a television interview late Thursday.

Putin said Ukraine, lacking the military intelligence capability, would rely on U.S. and European allies for satellite targeting data and programming of the missiles’ flight paths. “So this is not a question of allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons or not,” Putin said. “It is a question of deciding whether or not NATO countries are directly involved in a military conflict.”

Vasily Nebenzya, the Russian ambassador to the United Nations, warned the U.N. Security Council on Friday about the use of Western weapons deep inside Russia. “The facts are that NATO will be a direct party to hostilities against a nuclear power,” Nebenzya said. “I think you shouldn’t forget about this and think about the consequences.”

Victor’s Comment and Analysis:

If the U.S. and UK provide the above referenced long range missiles to Ukraine, it would be considered an Act of War by Russia which could launch a Nuclear War? Putin might retaliate by firing nuclear missiles aimed at London, Washington DC, NYC and other western nations that approved missiles to Ukraine that could attack Russia.

-->That would mean the end of the world as we all know it!

Many leaders of the West were disappointed the missiles have not yet been given to Ukraine as they seem to want war for some political reason I haven’t been able to understand.

Sr. U.S Senator (South Carolina) Lindsey Graham has argued that the West “can’t afford to lose” the war in Ukraine. In a June 9^th interview on the CBS program “Face the Nation,” Graham said:

“There are $10 to $12 trillion of critical minerals in Ukraine. They could be the richest country in all of Europe. I don’t want to give that money and those assets to Putin to share with China. “That $10 to $12 trillion of critical mineral assets could be used by Ukraine and the West, not given to Putin and China.”

“This is a very big deal, how Ukraine ends. Let’s help them win a war we can’t afford to lose. Let’s find a solution to this war. But they’re sitting on a gold mine. To give Putin $10 or $12 trillion of critical minerals that he will share with China is ridiculous”, he repeated.

Russia’s hardliners include people like Senator Graham who want war in order to preserve Russia’s trillions of dollars in natural resource assets.

………………………………………………………………………………………………

Victor’s Conclusions:

The psychopaths and sociopaths in the West who provoke war with a nuclear superpower (Russia) will eventually destroy life on earth unless there is a major concerted effort by the people to stop this lunacy!

The Mainstream Media (MSM) rarely reports the potential consequences of these calls for War.

Both the Democratic and Republican parties support this insanity by not seriously pursuing peace talks and offering continued weapons to Ukraine.

We dodged the bullet this time, but it’s not the final word on the matter as the Curmudgeon has noted above.

Any reasonable person should understand that this trend of promoting war would be the end of humanity. The greatest risk the world faces today are politicians who for various unknown reasons want war.

End Quote:

“There's no honorable way to kill, no gentle way to destroy. There is nothing good in war. Except its ending.”

Abraham Lincoln, 16^th President of U.S. (1861-1865)

………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Be well, stay calm, success and good luck. Till next time…..

The Curmudgeon
ajwdct@gmail.com

Follow the Curmudgeon on Twitter @ajwdct247

Curmudgeon is a retired investment professional.  He has been involved in financial markets since 1968 (yes, he cut his teeth on the 1968-1974 bear market), became an SEC Registered Investment Advisor in 1995, and received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation from AIMR (now CFA Institute) in 1996.  He managed hedged equity and alternative (non-correlated) investment accounts for clients from 1992-2005.

Victor Sperandeo is a historian, economist and financial innovator who has re-invented himself and the companies he's owned (since 1971) to profit in the ever changing and arcane world of markets, economies, and government policies.  Victor started his Wall Street career in 1966 and began trading for a living in 1968. As President and CEO of Alpha Financial Technologies LLC, Sperandeo oversees the firm's research and development platform, which is used to create innovative solutions for different futures markets, risk parameters and other factors.

Copyright © 2024 by the Curmudgeon and Marc Sexton. All rights reserved.

Readers are PROHIBITED from duplicating, copying, or reproducing article(s) written by The Curmudgeon and Victor Sperandeo without providing the URL of the original posted article(s).