Trump’s
Policies, Impact on US Economy and Other GOP Presidential Candidates
by Victor Sperandeo, edited the Curmudgeon
The Trump Card:
The extensive coverage of the 2016 US Presidential election,
primarily due to Donald Trump's unusual style of campaigning, has created a
revolution within the Republican Party (the Grand Old Party or GOP). If Trump wins the Republican nomination
and the Presidential election, what would that mean for the U.S. economy and
our freedom?
For full disclosure, I'm not a fan of Mr. Trump and would
not support him, but for different reasons than the GOP candidates and main
street media critics. However, I'm glad
he is in the race for the differences he brings, and in many cases, the blatant
candidness in expressing his views that is nothing like any
"politician" before him that has run for President. When you combine the Don Rickles - like
insults, with the Jackie Mason political satire, he is in reality a major hit
show that entertains "the people."
The reward to all of us for Donald Trump running for President is the psychological reaction by the public, the media and the other candidates to his words and outlined policies. It's not so much “the Donald” is liked, as it is his total outrage at the typical politician (with the lies they spew out to please everyone, but mean nothing to the political candidates after their words have been uttered).
……………………………………………………….
Sidebar: Opinion on Political Parties Beholding to
Special Interests:
The methods and procedures that are used to make the laws,
rules, and regulations which effect all Americans are very similar for both of
our political parties. Yet they
have been shown to be disgusting to the bulk of the U.S. citizens, because they
are for the special interests and NOT the people. They only change in
small ways for the people, and move back and forth depending on who is disliked
least at the time and thereby wins power.
You really are not voting for a specific political
candidate, but rather the group (gang) called a “political party,” with
instructions from the Caporegime or capo (in the mafia, a high ranking made
member of a crime family). Regrettably,
that is the heart and soul of the voting process.
……………………………………………………….
Exhibit A - The Iran Nuclear Deal:
According to a PEW poll, only 21% of the public is for the
deal as of 9/9/15. CNN shows 56% (as of
8/21/15) of the people are against it, and 22% don't know what to think. Yet the Iran Nuclear deal is moving
forward.
That's not unique.
Except for elections, the public never mattered if one party had an
agenda it wanted to pass Congress (e.g. "Affordable Care Act" by the
Democrats). The Democrats agenda this
time was the Iran Nuclear Deal - to supposedly keep the world safe by
preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb.
Clarification: The Iran Nuclear Deal is not called a
treaty, but an "executive agreement" and thereby legally does
not exist as a law. It is a non-binding
agreement between President Obama, the UN, and Iran that can be changed with
the next president, according to the U.S. Constitution. Therefore, this new “law” (?) is completely
unique. “The limitation on the
President is he’s only got the ability to do this during his term,” Rep. Peter Roskam (R., Ill.) said in an interview with the WSJ.
The Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (leader is Bob Corker (R-TENN), together with Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, turned the US Constitution upside down to help President Obama win this deal. As a result, one of the most important treaties in our lifetime is not even going to get a vote, even though the Constitution states 2/3's of the Senate needs to vote "yes" for a treaty pass!
……………………………………………………….
Curmudgeon Note:
This weekend's WSJ (Sept 12-13, 2015) has an important lead article
titled: Obama
Methodically Wooed Democrats to Back Iran Nuclear Deal. The claim is that the White House set up an
‘anti-war’ room to pressure fellow Democrats, worked with House minority leader
Nancy Pelosi and outside groups to ensure enough votes such that a veto
wouldn't be necessary.
To buttress Victor's assertion about politicians working
with special interest groups, consider that the Obama administration enlisted
the San Francisco, CA based Ploughshares Fund to get the
Iran deal done! The Ploughshares
coalition includes a former Iranian government spokesman, according to the
Journal. Ploughshares has spent more
than $7 million in the past four years funding think tanks, media organizations
and activist groups focused on championing diplomacy with Iran.
The WSJ article states:
“A week before the deal was reached, Ploughshares organized for the
White House a conference call for around 100 activist groups to strategize how
to promote the Iran deal. Two members of the White House’s Office of Public
Engagement took part.”
The Curmudgeon wonders why the Obama administration had
to outsource its Iran deal Congressional lobbying effort to a nonprofit organization.
Is that what “public-private” partnerships have become in the age of special
interest groups?
……………………………………………………….
Why Trump is in the Lead:
This is, in major part, why Trump is ahead in the
polls. As everyone states, he is
reflecting the disgust and hatred with professional politicians (or con men and
women) of both parties. What is telling is the politicians know this and
don't care!
More accurately, the Republican "Establishment,"
originally under the banner of "Rockefeller” liberal or moderate
Republicans are still strong believers in the Welfare State i.e. “Socialism
Lite.” They sold the citizens liberty for power. This morphed into
neo-conservatism started by Irving Kristol (The Godfather of the Neo-con
movement). It's represented today by his
son Bill Kristol of the "Weekly Standard Magazine." This mentality
promotes democracy and American national interests in international affairs
(sometimes referred to as "the New World Order") and goes into wars
if need be. This has been eagerly pursued by George W Bush, along with John
McCain, Lindsey Graham, or the "war cabal."
The difference between Trump and the war cabal is that “the
Donald” wants to be paid for going to war by the country involved. For example, by the US commandeering natural
resources such as Middle East oil. This is not constitutional, but is
imperialism. So as where the war cabal wants to CONTROL these nations, Trump
wants to TAKE their resources. The problem with that thinking is a lack of
dealing in principles and ideals. Rather, they deal in whims.
Taxes and the Constitution:
Trump, like many of the other presidential candidates want a
progressive income tax. On the
other hand, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul want a Flat
Consumption tax or “fair tax” and an end to the IRS.
Taxes are by far the greatest enslavement tool of Statists.1
The taxes collected by the government are often
spent on projects or preferences of companies or groups which give campaign
contributions to the politicians who in turn “dish out the dough.”
Note 1. Statism
is the belief that the state should control either economic and/or social
policy. Statism is effectively the
opposite of anarchism. An individual who
supports the existence of the state is a statist.
Trump's tax plan is better than most progressive schemes,
but it seems to be temporary. The rules of the Constitution were based on an
excise tax on foreign goods and "proportional" taxes if needed (like
in a war). Karl Marx knew that a "progressive"
tax would over-turn Capitalism...and if you trace most of the problems in the
U.S., taxes is at the top of the list.
Donald never relates to this nation's Constitution, but
instead wants to "get the job done" by any means possible. I
believe he would change the economy for the better, but it would be temporary. His tax plan is contained within his 2011
book, "Time to Get Tough."
His five-step plan includes eliminating the estate tax and
the corporate income tax, lowering the tax rate on capital gains and dividends,
enacting a 20% tariff on all imported goods and creating a new, lower income
tax rate structure. The income tax would include a tax rate structure of: 1%
for up to $30,000; 5% for $30,000-$100,000; 10 % for $100,000-$1,000,000; and
15% for income over $1,000,000.
Trump's plan for immigration and taxes are a huge
move to positive change as they would increase income for the people. Who
would not take a maximum 15% tax over $1 million in income? Today it's
43.35% with the Medicare tax. Increased
pay for a lower supply of workers would raise incomes, add more manufacturing
in the US via a proposed 20% tariff, etc.
The hatred for Trump by the "Republican
Establishment" and media is because he is not CONTROLLABLE, and therefore
threatens all their jobs! Without
a Corporate Income Tax, GOP politicians could not bribe corporate donors for
House and Senate member campaign funds, as they wouldn't have much to offer in
return.
As a result, Trump is the establishment's worst nightmare in
many ways, as are all the other flat tax candidates.
Curmudgeon Note: Trump has
stated that any money he receives from campaign contributions will not come
with expectations of political favors. We don't hear other candidates making
that promise.
Dealing with Illegal Immigrants:
Illegal aliens, or undocumented immigrants/workers is a
relatively easy problem to solve. Simply
charge employers up to a $250,000 fine and three years in jail, or both for
hiring an illegal alien. The estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants would
then leave, because they couldn't get a job.
Trump's plan to end illegal immigration and deport
undocumented migrants is causing sleepless nights for many U.S. companies which
would then have to pay more to hire and retain U.S. workers.
In summary, Trump could be effective, but in a highly
capricious manner.
Other GOP Candidates:
The strong GOP "establishment candidates" are:
Bush, Christie, Rubio, Pataki, Graham, Santorum, Kasich, and Gilmore (Perry has
dropped out).
Less establishment oriented, but not independent of the
party: Walker, Huckabee, Fiorina, and Jindal.
Far more freedom Constitutional minded are: Carson, Cruz,
and Paul. (For full disclosure I am a contributor to Carson's campaign).
Conclusions:
The Unicorn is Trump.
It's hard to classify his mentality, since it has changed many times,
apparently due to his lack of thinking in terms of principles or the U.S.
Constitution.
The Evils of World are outlined in the Canon of
Westminster Abbey which identifies 7 Cardinal Crimes of Modern Society. The Seven Social Sins are:
This is why the “Establishment Republicans" are in big
trouble and Trump is often perceived as a “White Knight.” The people get his message. However, most of the people who like Trump
don't notice he is espousing unconstitutional policies!
Ben Carson, a more normal GOP candidate (who the CURMUDGEON
also supports) is currently second in the polls. He may gain ground as the Presidential
campaign progresses into 2016.
Upcoming Speaking Appearance:
I will be speaking at the 7th
Annual Mises Celebration at 7:30pm on Sept 26th in San Jose,
CA. Jeffrey Tucker's keynote speech at
8pm will be on "Why Mises Still Matters in the Digital Age." Invitations to attend this reasonably priced
event are extended to readers via the above hyperlink. The Curmudgeon will also attend, but
incognito as his identity must always remain a secret.
Good luck and till next time…
The Curmudgeon
ajwdct@sbumail.com
Follow the Curmudgeon on Twitter @ajwdct247
Curmudgeon is a retired investment professional. He has been involved in financial markets since 1968 (yes, he cut his teeth on the 1968-1974 bear market), became an SEC Registered Investment Advisor in 1995, and received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation from AIMR (now CFA Institute) in 1996. He managed hedged equity and alternative (non-correlated) investment accounts for clients from 1992-2005.
Victor Sperandeo is a
historian, economist and financial innovator who has re-invented himself and
the companies he's owned (since 1971) to profit in the ever changing and arcane
world of markets, economies and government policies. Victor started his Wall Street career in 1966
and began trading for a living in 1968. As President and CEO of Alpha Financial
Technologies LLC, Sperandeo oversees the firm's research and development
platform, which is used to create innovative solutions for different futures
markets, risk parameters and other factors.
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