Growling Since 1996
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Daily Market Report Page (02/19)
Weekly Market Summary Page (02/18)
Year End 2019 Summary Page (12/31/19)
Year End 2018 Summary Page
(12/31/18)
Year End 2010 Summary Page
(12/31/10)
Year End 2009 Summary Page
(12/31/09)
Year End 2008 Summary Page
(12/31/08)
Crash of 2008 Weekly Summary Page
(10/13/08)
Click here for latest quotes for the week
Previous Week's Commentaries: Monday;
Tuesday; Wednesday; Thursday; Friday
Current Links of
Interest
Charles
Hugh Smith: The Fed Has Created a Monster Bubble It Can No Longer Control (02/19)
Curmudgeon: Whatever
Happened to the Inflation Premium on 30-year U.S. Treasury Bonds? (02/17)
Curmudgeon: Fed T-Bill
Buying Persists Depsite Ultra Easy Financial Conditions (02/10)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: Has
the U.S. Economy Really Comeback or Weakened? What’s the Outlook for 2020?
(02/02)
David
Haggith: Stock Market More Overpriced and Perilous Than Anytime in History
(01/27)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon:
Analysis of China’s Economy: Debt Fueled Growth, Trade Deal to Test Trump, Risk
of Shadow Banking, etc. (01/20)
Curmudgeon: China Economy
Expands but Debt and New Loans Soar; Trade Deal Revisted (01/19)
Curmudgeon: Phase One
Trade Agreement Signed, but Tariffs Remain in Place (01/15)
Curmudgeon: Will Geopolitical Tensions Effect the Oil and Stock Markets?
(01/12)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: Can
Central Banks Change the Stock Market’s Primary Trend (01/05)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: End
of Decade Review: “Requiem of Free Market Capitalism” (12/30)
Curmudgeon: End of Decade
Review of U.S. Economy and Financial Markets (12/22)
Curmudgeon: Buy, Buy, Buy;
Melt-Up Talk Proliferates (12/16)
Curmudgeon: A Tribute to
Paul Volcker – Greatest Fed Chairman in History (12/09)
Curmudgeon: S&P 500
Forecasts Bullish but Prices Bolstered by Buybacks and ETFs, Not Earnings
(12/08)
Curmudgeon: Unicorn
Valuations Plummet Resulting in VC Confidence Drop (11/28)
Curmudgeon: S&P 500
Earnings Recession Continues; Servere Decline in Core Earnings Explained
(11/24)
Curmudgeon: S&P 500
Earnings Beat Estimates Which Continue to Fall; ShadowStats Financial Forecast
(11/11)
Curmudgeon: Analysis and
Implications of U.S. Budget Deficit at $1 Trillion (10/27)
David
Haggith: Quick Recap of the Fed’s Foundering Follies and Our Descent into
Economic Madness (10/24)
Curmudgeon: Fed Launches
New Round of QE with a Stated Different Purpose (10/13)
David
Haggith: The Beginning of the End: Great Recession 2.0 is Obscured but Here!
(10/01)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon:
Lessons in Dishonesty - from U.S. Government Agencies and the Banking System
(09/22)
David
Haggith: Fed Loses Control of its Benchmark Interest: Repo Rates Through the
Roof! (09/22)
David
Haggith: Why are Bonds Going for Broke? (09/16)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon:
China Risk is Potentially Far More Than a Trade War; What’s the Fed’s Real
Goal? (08/11)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Bond
Vigilantes and Deficit Hawks are Extinct; Stocks love DEBT! (07/28)
David
Haggith: The Fed’s Final Bullet Hits ‘Em in the Foot (07/22)
Curmudgeon: Annualized Global Bond Fund Inflows Hit a Record; Negative
Yields; Profit Recession Dead Ahead? (07/21)
David
Haggith: A Long Shadow Creeps Over the Economy This Summer (07/12)
David
Haggith: Ten Big Steps Down the Road to Recession (07/08)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo:
Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Bitcoin ALL UP; M2 and Money Velocity DOWN! (07/03)
David
Haggith: Best-Case Scenario Has a Worst-Case Twist (07/01)
David
Haggith: Market Mayhem is Due to Truly Perfect Storm for 2019 Recession (06/17)
David Haggith:
These Three Major Stock Bear Markets are Still Roaring (06/03)
David
Haggith: Carmageddon Keeps Rolling Along (05/28)
David
Haggith: Market Loses its Hopium-Induced High, Falls Four Straight Weeks
(05/20)
David
Haggith: The Zombie Epocalypse: A River of Denial Floods Markets Everywhere
(05/06)
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Weekly Charts
Dow
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red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA; pink line - NYSE adv/dec
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The Fed with its Keynesian vision believes it can hold off a correction forever. In the history of the stock market, that’s never been done.
Confidence and complacency are more acute
now than any time I’ve seen before. All expressions of overvaluation are at historical
extremes. Despite this, most money managers remain in the market. The thesis is
“if it’s going up, regardless of anything else, I want to be in it.” Perhaps
the best indicator of complacency is the VIX which at its current level of 13
tells us that investors see no reason to protect their positions. Every minor
decline is seen as a buying opportunity. The rationale is that the Fed would
not allow anything worse than a 10% decline. If the stock market starts sinking
between now and October 1st, I will be most interested to see if the Fed
eliminates QE.
Richard Russell,
90-year-old publisher of the Dow Theory since 1958.
Archives
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Fiend's Bear Encounters (1939-42, 1973-74,
1981-82) Page
DJIA, adv/dec, and momentum data
from 1990 to 01/15/20
Market Top of 1968 Revisited
Business Week's The Death of Equities Revisited
Tj's Financial Cartoon Gallery
Miki's Portraits of Some
Bulls of the Millennium
This page was last updated on February 19, 2020.
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