Growling Since 1996

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Daily Market Report Page (02/15)

Weekly Market Summary Page (02/11)

Year End 2018 Summary Page (12/31/18)
Year End 2010 Summary Page (12/31/10)
Year End 2009 Summary Page (12/31/09)
Year End 2008 Summary Page (12/31/08)
Crash of 2008 Weekly Summary Page (10/13/08)

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Previous Week's Commentaries: Monday; Tuesday; Wednesday; Thursday; Friday

Current Links of Interest   

Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: Market Ignores Weak Economic Reports; Huge Fund Outflows; Victor’s Analysis (02/17)
David Haggith: Housing Market Crash 2.0: The Jury is in for 2018-2019 (02/12)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Why No Commodity Inflation? The Government Changed the Laws (02/10)
David Haggith: The Fed’s Failure is a Fait Accompli, Exactly as This Blog Said it Would Be! (02/07)
David Haggith: Powell Put Sends Stocks Soaring, Recession Must be Near (01/31)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: Fed’s Balance Sheet Runoff is All About Bank Reserves; Who Does the Fed Represent? (01/28)
David Haggith: The Great Recovery Rewind: How the Federal Reserve’s Balance-Sheet Unwind is Unwinding Recovery (01/28)
David Haggith: Federal Reserve Confesses Sole Responsibility for All Recessions (01/17)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: Stock Buybacks Exposed: Record Year, Outlook and Examples; Lower Growth=Lower P/E (01/13)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Fed Chair Sets New Record: 180 Degree Flip Flop in 15 Days! (01/06)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Thoughts on the Decline in U.S. Productivity and Standard of Living (01/03)
David Haggith: Angry Gartman: “We Are Supposed to Believe the Bull Market is Still Intact? Utter and Complete Nonsense” (01/03)
David Haggith: The Roar of Stupidity is Now Deafening (01/02)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Bear Market, Corrections and Recession Lead Times (12/30)
David Haggith: It’s Up, It’s Down, It’s Done – a Day in a Year of the Dow (12/30)
Curmudgeon: Quick Takes and Shadowstats’ Thoughts on the U.S. Stock Market (12/28)
David Haggith: Fed Med is Dead: How We Went From Fake Recovery to Freefall (12/27)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Bear Market Update and New Investor Psychology (12/24)
David Haggith: Something Wicked This Way Comes. Is it the Fed? Is it the President? Is it the Treasurer? (12/24)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Superior Long Term Indicators Say U.S. Stocks are in 2^nd Leg of a Bear Market (12/23)
David Haggith: Stock Market Hangs on Edge of Very Big Cliff (12/18)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: December 2018 Fed Meeting and the Markets (12/16)
Curmudgeon: Dow Theory Sell Signal Triggered Yesterday—Yet No One Noticed! (12/11) 
Curmudgeon: Are U.S. Stocks in a Bear Market or Just a Correction? (12/09)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: Post Midterms Stock Market Outlook: History vs. Fundamentals in Conflict (11/12)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: U.S. Financial Markets, Outlook, and the Fed (11/04)
Curmudgeon: Ready, Set, Go: Global Debt Implosion, Deleveraging, and Quantitative Tightening (09/10)
Curmudgeon: Longest S&P Bull Market with Many Bear Markets; Seaonality Fails in New Era (08/19)
Curmudgeon: U.S. Budget Deficit Rising (Should be Falling); Impact on Borrowing and Interest Rates (08/06)
David Haggith: Icarus Flies, but FAANGs Fall from the Gaping Maw of US Stock Market (08/06)
David Haggith: Fabulously Fake Facts – “G” in GDP Stands for “Gullibility” (08/01)
David Haggith: Housing Market Collapse 2.0 Accelerates Rapidly! (07/30)
David Haggith: The Economy is Cracking Up. Are You? (07/23)
David Haggith: Epocalypse Ahead On Highway to Hell For Global Economy and US Stock Market (07/02)
Curmudgeon: Mega Tech Stock Weighting and Outsized Gains Makes Nasdaq and S&P 500 Dangerously Undiversified (07/01)
MarketWatch: This 501-day Trading Streak for the Dow Just Came to a Screeching Halt (06/26)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: New Era Economy and Financial Markets Explained—Part II (06/20)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: New Era Economy and Financial Markets Explained—Part I (06/18)
David Haggith: Death of the Great Recovery Part 3: Housing Collapse 2.0 Has Begun (05/30)
David Haggith: Death of the Great Recovery Part 2: The Second Coming of Carmageddon (05/07)
David Haggith: Stocks Perfectly Poised to Plummet Past Point of No Return (05/04)

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   Weekly Charts

Dow Jones Industrials (02/08)

red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA; pink line - NYSE adv/dec

green line - Dow 21 DMA; red line - 50 DMA
 

NASDAQ Composite (02/08)

red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA

green line - 21 DMA; red line - 50 DMA

       S&P 500 (02/08)

red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA; pink line - NYSE VIX

Notable Quote(s):
 

The Fed with its Keynesian vision believes it can hold off a correction forever. In the history of the stock market, that’s never been done.

Confidence and complacency are more acute now than any time I’ve seen before. All expressions of overvaluation are at historical extremes. Despite this, most money managers remain in the market. The thesis is “if it’s going up, regardless of anything else, I want to be in it.” Perhaps the best indicator of complacency is the VIX which at its current level of 13 tells us that investors see no reason to protect their positions. Every minor decline is seen as a buying opportunity. The rationale is that the Fed would not allow anything worse than a 10% decline. If the stock market starts sinking between now and October 1st, I will be most interested to see if the Fed eliminates QE.

Richard Russell, 90-year-old publisher of the Dow Theory since 1958.

Archives

The Magic Wand of Liquidity Page (02/11/19)
Fiend's Bear Encounters (1939-42, 1973-74, 1981-82) Page
DJIA, adv/dec, and momentum data from 1990 to 12/17/18
Market Top of 1968 Revisited
Business Week's The Death of Equities Revisited
Tj's Financial Cartoon Gallery
Miki's Portraits of Some Bulls of the Millennium

This page was last updated on February 17, 2019.

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The Fiend's Summer1998 Vacation Page
The Fiend's Spring 1999 Vacation Page
The Fiend's Summer 2000 Vacation Page
Finally -- Some dive photos

Since May 7th, 1997, this page has been accessedtimes.
 

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