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Daily Market Report Page (09/23)

Weekly Market Summary Page (09/19)

Year End 2010 Summary Page (12/31/10)
Year End 2009 Summary Page (12/31/09)
Year End 2008 Summary Page (12/31/08)
Crash of 2008 Weekly Summary Page (10/13/08)

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Previous Week's Commentaries: Monday; Tuesday; Wednesday; Thursday; Friday


Current Links of Interest   

Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Commodity Update, Fed Meeting, Citi and SoGen, US Dollar Crash (09/25)
Christopher Lingle: Failure of Negative Nominal Interest Rates (09/23)
Curmudgeon: Fidelity Corrals the Largest “Unicorn Herd” – Other Mutual Funds Join the Party (09/21)
Craig Wilson: David Stockman: Central Bank Era of Bubble Finance Leading to a Dead End (09/20)
Curmudgeon: BoAML Survey: Financial Markets Overvalued and Bond Shock Possible; Wage Gains? (09/19)
Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: Friday’s Stock Market Decline: Complacency vs. New Fed Policy (09/12)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: What Causes Productivity Growth; Are Taxes Critical to the Result? (09/11)
Curmudgeon: S&P 500 Earnings Continue to Decline as EPS Estimates are Lowered (09/09)
Suzanne McGee: Trump Finally Got It Right on the Fed’s ‘False Economy’ – But Will We Listen? (09/08)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: “Real” Fiscal Policy is and has been Non-Existent! (09/05)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole Speech: The Set Up to Raise Rates? (08/29)

Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: The Pros and Cons of “Buy and Hold” vs. the Next Bear Market (08/22)
Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: Stock Market Analysis and Perspective On Risk vs. Reward – Part II (08/16)
Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: Stock Market Analysis and Perspective On Risk vs. Reward – Part I (08/15)
Curmudgeon: The Productivity Paradox – US Economic Long Term Growth Threatened (08/10)
Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: Does July’s Strong Job Report Mean Happy Times are Here Again? (08/08)
David Haggith: This Graph Says It All – US 2016 Recession Already Here! (08/05)
Curmudgeon: Eurozone Recession Could Cause Big Banks to Fail and Trigger “Bail-Ins” (08/03)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Integrity of “News Reporting” Has Become Extinct! (08/01)
Curmudgeon: S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates Decline as Stock Prices Soar (07/27)
Alan Newman: Dark Legacy (07/26)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Unpubliczed Risks to Global Economy and Financial Markets (07/25)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Why Gold Is More Than a “Pet Rock” (07/18)
David Haggith: Central Bank Wonderland is Complete and Now Open for Business – The Epocalypse Has Fully Begun (07/14)
Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: Analysis of the Jobs Report, Record Low Yields and Stock Market Action (07/11)
David Haggith: Brexit Beleaguered Bankers Back to Begging for Bailouts! (07/11)
David Stockman: Here We Go Again – August 2007 Redux (07/08)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Brexit Reality or Manipulation: Stocks and Bonds Rally; Treasury Yields at All-Time Low (07/04)
David Haggith: Economic Predictions for Summer 2016: The Epocalypse Keeps Crashing (06/29)
Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: Brexit Post-Mortem: Analysis, Economic Impact, Market Calls (06/27)
David Haggith: Brexit: Brits Lead Anti-Establishment Rebellion in European Departure (06/24)
David Haggith: Why Janet Aint Yellin’ “Higher Interest” Anymore: Jobs Worse than Expected and Far Worse than Reported (06/22)
John Hussman, Ph. D.: Imagine (06/21)
Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: Brexit Explained: Overview, UK Newspaper Positions/Analysis, Market and Economic Impact (06/19)
Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: Federal Reserve Bank “Magic Profits” Exaggerates US Corporate Profits (06/14)
Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: Shockingly Weak Jobs Report Shows Fed is in Another Dimension (06/06)
Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: G7 Meeting Highlights and Opinion on Abe’s Economic Distress Call (05/29)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: China Update: South China Sea Expansion, Economic War, Market Reaction and Failures of Communism (05/23)
Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: Dallas Fed: Stock Market Disconnected from Real U.S. Economy (05/16)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon/Fiendbear: Potpourrii of Observations on Economy, Markets, and Politics (05/10)
Curmudgeon/Victor Sperandeo: Weak Productivity: The Untold Story of the U.S. “Economic Recovery” (05/05)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Gold – “The Barbarous Relic” – Now in a Bull Market! (05/02)
Curmudgeon: Disappointing U.S. GDP is Actually Worse Than Reported! (04/29)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: “Free Trade” – A Fraudulent Name for Trade Bills U.S. Government Wants to Pass (04/25)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Trump Assessment and Corruption of the U.S. Presidential Election Process [Politics] (04/18)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Yellen and Fed Leaders: No Bubble and U.S. Economy on Solid Course (Really?) (04/11)
Curmudgeon: Global Earnings Recession and a Grinding Bear Market (04/06)
Victor Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Is the Stock Market Rally Based on Improving Fundamentals? (04/04)

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   Weekly Charts

Dow Jones Industrials (09/16)
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red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA; pink line - NYSE adv/dec

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green line - Dow 21 DMA; red line - 50 DMA
 

NASDAQ Composite (09/16)
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red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA

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green line - 21 DMA; red line - 50 DMA

       S&P 500 (09/16)
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red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA; pink line - NYSE VIX

Notable Quote(s):
 

The Fed with its Keynesian vision believes it can hold off a correction forever. In the history of the stock market, that’s never been done.


Confidence and complacency are more acute now than any time I’ve seen before. All expressions of overvaluation are at historical extremes. Despite this, most money managers remain in the market. The thesis is “if it’s going up, regardless of anything else, I want to be in it.” Perhaps the best indicator of complacency is the VIX which at its current level of 13 tells us that investors see no reason to protect their positions. Every minor decline is seen as a buying opportunity. The rationale is that the Fed would not allow anything worse than a 10% decline. If the stock market starts sinking between now and October 1st, I will be most interested to see if the Fed eliminates QE.


Richard Russell, 90 year-old publisher of the Dow Theory since 1958.



Archives

The Magic Wand of Liquidity Page (09/19/16)
Fiend's Bear Encounters (1939-42, 1973-74, 1981-82) Page
DJIA, adv/dec, and momentum data from 1990 to 09/15/16
Market Top of 1968 Revisited
Business Week's The Death of Equities Revisited
Tj's Financial Cartoon Gallery
Miki's Portraits of Some Bulls of the Millennium


This page was last updated on September 25, 2016.

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