Growling Since 1996
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Daily Market Report Page (11/20)
Weekly Market Summary Page (11/19)
Year End 2010 Summary Page (12/31/10)
Year End 2009 Summary Page (12/31/09)
Year End 2008 Summary Page
(12/31/08)
Crash of 2008 Weekly Summary Page
(10/13/08)
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Previous Week's Commentaries: Monday; Tuesday; Wednesday; Thursday; Friday
Current Links of Interest
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: Post Midterms Stock Market
Outlook: History vs. Fundamentals in Conflict (11/12)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: U.S.
Financial Markets, Outlook, and the Fed (11/04)
Curmudgeon: Ready, Set,
Go: Global Debt Implosion, Deleveraging, and Quantitative Tightening (09/10)
Curmudgeon:
Longest S&P Bull Market with Many Bear Markets; Seaonality Fails in New Era
(08/19)
Curmudgeon: U.S. Budget
Deficit Rising (Should be Falling); Impact on Borrowing and Interest Rates
(08/06)
David
Haggith: Icarus Flies, but FAANGs Fall from the Gaping Maw of US Stock Market
(08/06)
David
Haggith: Fabulously Fake Facts – “G” in GDP Stands for “Gullibility” (08/01)
David
Haggith: Housing Market Collapse 2.0 Accelerates Rapidly! (07/30)
David
Haggith: The Economy is Cracking Up. Are You? (07/23)
David
Haggith: Epocalypse Ahead On Highway to Hell For Global Economy and US Stock
Market (07/02)
Curmudgeon: Mega Tech
Stock Weighting and Outsized Gains Makes Nasdaq and S&P 500 Dangerously
Undiversified (07/01)
MarketWatch:
This 501-day Trading Streak for the Dow Just Came to a Screeching Halt (06/26)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: New
Era Economy and Financial Markets Explained—Part II (06/20)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: New
Era Economy and Financial Markets Explained—Part I (06/18)
David
Haggith: Death of the Great Recovery Part 3: Housing Collapse 2.0 Has Begun
(05/30)
David
Haggith: Death of the Great Recovery Part 2: The Second Coming of Carmageddon
(05/07)
David
Haggith: Stocks Perfectly Poised to Plummet Past Point of No Return (05/04)
David
Haggith: The Dumb Money is Helping the Smart Money Exit the Stock Market
(03/12)
David
Haggith: All Fed up on Peak Debt (03/05)
David
Haggith: As a Matter of INTEREST, Talk of Inflation Fear, the Fed’s Perfect
Unwind, Concern about Wages is ALL Economic Denial (03/02)
Curmudgeon: Results of GOP
Tax Bill: Big Surprise in 4thQ 2017 DJIA GAAP Earnings while Stock Buybacks
Accelerate as Predicted (02/27)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon:
Market Risks, Problems and Positions – Part II (02/15)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon:
Stock Market Volatility vs. U.S. Budget Deficits and Debt at a Tipping Point?
[revised] (02/14)
David
Haggith: Stock Market’s Massive Moves Not Seen Since Great Recession (02/12)
David
Haggith: Groundhog Day Drives Market 666 Points Below Ground (02/05)
Curmudgeon: Does the U.S.
Government Want a Strong or Weak Dollar? (01/29)
Curmudgeon: Ray Dalio from
Davos: Cash is STUPID + Chart of the Century (01/26)
David
Haggith: I Bet My Blog on a 2018 Economic Collapse – 2018 Economic Predictions
(01/23)
Curmudgeon: Strong
Earnings Power Stocks Rapid Rise in 2018…or Maybe Not? (01/22)
Curmudgeon: Implications
of Surging Momentum and Highlights of BoAML Fund Manager Survey (01/17)
Curmudgeon: Investors Intelligence
Bull/Bear Ratio at All Time High! [Chart] (01/16)
Curmudgeon: U.S. Equity
Market Celebrates the New Year; Champagne Sparkles Till Time is Up (01/08)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo:
Global Stocks Defying Skeptics; 2018 Outlook and Bull Market Tops (01/03)
David
Haggith: The Ghosts of Crashes Past, Recent, and Future as they Appeared on
this Blog (12/29)
Curmudgeon: U.S. Corporate
Tax Cuts Boost a Market Dominated by New Era Thinking (12/26)
Curmudgeon: Charts
Indicate That Central Banks Must Tighten Monetary Policy: Part II (12/11)
Curmudgeon: Charts
Indicate That Central Banks Must Tighten Monetary Policy: Part I (12/09)
John
Maudlin: There’s Overwhelming Evidence That the U.S. Stock Market Is Heading
For Disaster (12/06)
David
Haggith: Stock and Awe, Bears in Bondage (11/08)
David
Haggith: US Stock Market Whistles Past the Graveyard (10/11)
David
Haggith: Graphic Anatomy of a Stock Market Crash (08/09)
David
Haggith: US Economy Keeps Moving Into Summer Storm (07/14)
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![Curmudgeon: Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio at All Time High! [Chart] (01/16)](http://www.fiendbear.com/InvIntell.gif){kind=link}
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The Fed with its Keynesian vision believes it can hold off a correction forever. In the history of the stock market, that’s never been done.
Confidence and complacency are more acute
now than any time I’ve seen before. All expressions of overvaluation are at historical
extremes. Despite this, most money managers remain in the market. The thesis is
“if it’s going up, regardless of anything else, I want to be in it.” Perhaps
the best indicator of complacency is the VIX which at its current level of 13
tells us that investors see no reason to protect their positions. Every minor
decline is seen as a buying opportunity. The rationale is that the Fed would
not allow anything worse than a 10% decline. If the stock market starts sinking
between now and October 1st, I will be most interested to see if the Fed
eliminates QE.
Richard Russell,
90-year-old publisher of the Dow Theory since 1958.
Archives
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Fiend's Bear Encounters (1939-42, 1973-74,
1981-82) Page
DJIA, adv/dec, and momentum data
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Market Top of 1968 Revisited
Business Week's The Death of Equities Revisited
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Bulls of the Millennium
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