Growling Since 1996

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Daily Market Report Page (12/05)

Weekly Market Summary Page (12/02)

Year End 2018 Summary Page (12/31/18)
Year End 2010 Summary Page (12/31/10)
Year End 2009 Summary Page (12/31/09)
Year End 2008 Summary Page (12/31/08)
Crash of 2008 Weekly Summary Page (10/13/08)

Click here for latest quotes for the week

Previous Week's Commentaries: Monday; Tuesday; Wednesday; Thursday; Friday

Current Links of Interest   

Curmudgeon: Unicorn Valuations Plummet Resulting in VC Confidence Drop (11/28)
Curmudgeon: S&P 500 Earnings Recession Continues; Servere Decline in Core Earnings Explained (11/24)
Curmudgeon: S&P 500 Earnings Beat Estimates Which Continue to Fall; ShadowStats Financial Forecast (11/11)
Curmudgeon: Analysis and Implications of U.S. Budget Deficit at $1 Trillion (10/27)
David Haggith: Quick Recap of the Fed’s Foundering Follies and Our Descent into Economic Madness (10/24)
Curmudgeon: Fed Launches New Round of QE with a Stated Different Purpose (10/13)
David Haggith: The Beginning of the End: Great Recession 2.0 is Obscured but Here! (10/01)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Lessons in Dishonesty - from U.S. Government Agencies and the Banking System (09/22)
David Haggith: Fed Loses Control of its Benchmark Interest: Repo Rates Through the Roof! (09/22)
David Haggith: Why are Bonds Going for Broke? (09/16)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: China Risk is Potentially Far More Than a Trade War; What’s the Fed’s Real Goal? (08/11)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Bond Vigilantes and Deficit Hawks are Extinct; Stocks love DEBT! (07/28)
David Haggith: The Fed’s Final Bullet Hits ‘Em in the Foot (07/22)
Curmudgeon: Annualized Global Bond Fund Inflows Hit a Record; Negative Yields; Profit Recession Dead Ahead? (07/21)
David Haggith: A Long Shadow Creeps Over the Economy This Summer (07/12)
David Haggith: Ten Big Steps Down the Road to Recession (07/08)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Bitcoin ALL UP; M2 and Money Velocity DOWN! (07/03)
David Haggith: Best-Case Scenario Has a Worst-Case Twist (07/01)
David Haggith: Market Mayhem is Due to Truly Perfect Storm for 2019 Recession (06/17)
David Haggith: These Three Major Stock Bear Markets are Still Roaring (06/03)
David Haggith: Carmageddon Keeps Rolling Along (05/28)
David Haggith: Market Loses its Hopium-Induced High, Falls Four Straight Weeks (05/20)
David Haggith: The Zombie Epocalypse: A River of Denial Floods Markets Everywhere (05/06)   
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: 10+ Year Bull Market Continues – Dow Theory Bear Call was a FALSE SIGNAL (04/28)
David Haggith: US GDP Not All it was Cracked up to be (04/28)
David Haggith: List of 24 Points Pressing Hard Toward Recession (04/22)
David Haggith: Here is How Far Central Bankers Got in Normalizing Before the Everything Crash Began (04/17)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Why Stocks Have Moved Up Despite Lower Profits and a Weakening Gobal Economy (04/15)
David Haggith: Tick, Tick, Talk, 2019 Recession Coming (04/09)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Dow Theory Explained and Bull Market Signal Questioned (04/07)
Curmudgeon: DOW THEORY BULL MARKET Confirmed; Disconnect and Economic Weakness Worries Persist (04/03)
David Haggith: Two Down, One to Go, and the Fed is Stuck (03/27)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: BoA: No Love For Stocks Yet Higher Prices Forecast; Victor Disagrees! (03/25)
David Haggith: A Week in the Life of a Topsy-Turvy Wildly Whirling World (03/11)
David Haggith: More Evidence That the Bears Have it Dead Right (02/27)
David Haggith: The Bears Have it Right: Economy Went Polar Opposite of Bullish Predictions (02/19)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: Market Ignores Weak Economic Reports; Huge Fund Outflows; Victor’s Analysis (02/17)
David Haggith: Housing Market Crash 2.0: The Jury is in for 2018-2019 (02/12)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: Why No Commodity Inflation? The Government Changed the Laws (02/10)
David Haggith: The Fed’s Failure is a Fait Accompli, Exactly as This Blog Said it Would Be! (02/07)

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Past Links of Interest

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   Weekly Charts

Dow Jones Industrials (11/29)

red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA; pink line - NYSE adv/dec

green line - Dow 21 DMA; red line - 50 DMA
 

NASDAQ Composite (11/29)

red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA

green line - 21 DMA; red line - 50 DMA

       S&P 500 (11/29)

red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA; pink line - NYSE VIX

Notable Quote(s):
 

The Fed with its Keynesian vision believes it can hold off a correction forever. In the history of the stock market, that’s never been done.

Confidence and complacency are more acute now than any time I’ve seen before. All expressions of overvaluation are at historical extremes. Despite this, most money managers remain in the market. The thesis is “if it’s going up, regardless of anything else, I want to be in it.” Perhaps the best indicator of complacency is the VIX which at its current level of 13 tells us that investors see no reason to protect their positions. Every minor decline is seen as a buying opportunity. The rationale is that the Fed would not allow anything worse than a 10% decline. If the stock market starts sinking between now and October 1st, I will be most interested to see if the Fed eliminates QE.

Richard Russell, 90-year-old publisher of the Dow Theory since 1958.

Archives

The Magic Wand of Liquidity Page (12/02/19)
Fiend's Bear Encounters (1939-42, 1973-74, 1981-82) Page
DJIA, adv/dec, and momentum data from 1990 to 11/15/19
Market Top of 1968 Revisited
Business Week's The Death of Equities Revisited
Tj's Financial Cartoon Gallery
Miki's Portraits of Some Bulls of the Millennium

This page was last updated on December 5, 2019.

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The Fiend's Summer1998 Vacation Page
The Fiend's Spring 1999 Vacation Page
The Fiend's Summer 2000 Vacation Page
Finally -- Some dive photos

Since May 7th, 1997, this page has been accessedtimes.
 

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