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Daily Market Report Page (05/22)
Weekly Market Summary Page (05/18)
Year End 2019 Summary Page (12/31/19)
Year End 2018 Summary Page
(12/31/18)
Year End 2010 Summary Page
(12/31/10)
Year End 2009 Summary Page
(12/31/09)
Year End 2008 Summary Page
(12/31/08)
Crash of 2008 Weekly Summary Page
(10/13/08)
Crash of 2020 Weekly Summary Page
(03/13/20)
Crash of 2020 Weekly Summary Page
(03/20/20)
Click here for latest
quotes for the week
Previous Week's Commentaries: Monday;
Tuesday; Wednesday; Thursday; Friday
Current Links of
Interest
Curmudgeon: U.S.
Unemployment Situation Much Worse than April BLS Report (05/10)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: The
Hokium of a “V” Recovery and Stock Market Rally (05/03)
Curmudgeon: California
Governor Newsom Becomes the “Anti-Trump” On Immigration (04/26)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon:
Perspective on U.S. Economy and the Coronavirus – Suicide is NOT Painless!
(04/17)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: No
“V” Recovery in US; Perspective on the Economy and Bear Markets (04/06)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo:
Mixed Sentiment and Composite Indexes; Bad to Horrific Economic Outlook; Debt
Crisis Looming; Relax Nonetheless! (03/29)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo:
Perspective: U.S. Economy and Stock Market Implode in Just 21 Trading Days!
(03/22)
Curmudgeon/SuperBear: Did
Your Market Timing Service Get You Out at the Top? (03/13)
Curmudgeon: Did You Buy
the Dip? How is Your Melt-Up Portfolio Doing? (03/10)
Peak
Prosperity (YouTube): Coronavirus Breaks the Stock Market (03/10)
Curmudgeon: Have Earnings
Become Irrelevant for S&P 500 Companies? Monster Bubble vs Depression?
(02/24)
Charles
Hugh Smith: The Fed Has Created a Monster Bubble It Can No Longer Control (02/19)
Curmudgeon: Whatever
Happened to the Inflation Premium on 30-year U.S. Treasury Bonds? (02/17)
Curmudgeon: Fed T-Bill
Buying Persists Depsite Ultra Easy Financial Conditions (02/10)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: Has
the U.S. Economy Really Comeback or Weakened? What’s the Outlook for 2020?
(02/02)
David
Haggith: Stock Market More Overpriced and Perilous Than Anytime in History
(01/27)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon:
Analysis of China’s Economy: Debt Fueled Growth, Trade Deal to Test Trump, Risk
of Shadow Banking, etc. (01/20)
Curmudgeon: China Economy
Expands but Debt and New Loans Soar; Trade Deal Revisted (01/19)
Curmudgeon: Phase One
Trade Agreement Signed, but Tariffs Remain in Place (01/15)
Curmudgeon: Will Geopolitical Tensions Effect the Oil and Stock Markets?
(01/12)
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: Can
Central Banks Change the Stock Market’s Primary Trend (01/05)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon: End
of Decade Review: “Requiem of Free Market Capitalism” (12/30)
Curmudgeon: End of Decade
Review of U.S. Economy and Financial Markets (12/22)
Curmudgeon: Buy, Buy, Buy;
Melt-Up Talk Proliferates (12/16)
Curmudgeon: A Tribute to
Paul Volcker – Greatest Fed Chairman in History (12/09)
Curmudgeon: S&P 500
Forecasts Bullish but Prices Bolstered by Buybacks and ETFs, Not Earnings
(12/08)
Curmudgeon: Unicorn
Valuations Plummet Resulting in VC Confidence Drop (11/28)
Curmudgeon: S&P 500
Earnings Recession Continues; Servere Decline in Core Earnings Explained
(11/24)
Curmudgeon: S&P 500
Earnings Beat Estimates Which Continue to Fall; ShadowStats Financial Forecast
(11/11)
Curmudgeon: Analysis and
Implications of U.S. Budget Deficit at $1 Trillion (10/27)
David
Haggith: Quick Recap of the Fed’s Foundering Follies and Our Descent into
Economic Madness (10/24)
Curmudgeon: Fed Launches
New Round of QE with a Stated Different Purpose (10/13)
David
Haggith: The Beginning of the End: Great Recession 2.0 is Obscured but Here!
(10/01)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon:
Lessons in Dishonesty - from U.S. Government Agencies and the Banking System
(09/22)
David
Haggith: Fed Loses Control of its Benchmark Interest: Repo Rates Through the
Roof! (09/22)
David
Haggith: Why are Bonds Going for Broke? (09/16)
Sperandeo/Curmudgeon:
China Risk is Potentially Far More Than a Trade War; What’s the Fed’s Real
Goal? (08/11)
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Weekly Charts
Dow
Jones Industrials (05/15)
red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA; pink line - NYSE adv/dec
green line - Dow 21 DMA; red line - 50 DMA
NASDAQ
Composite (05/15)
red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA
green line - 21 DMA; red line - 50 DMA
S&P 500 (05/15)
red line - 50 DMA; green line - 200 DMA; pink line - NYSE VIX
The Fed with its Keynesian vision believes it can hold off a correction forever. In the history of the stock market, that’s never been done.
Confidence and complacency are more acute
now than any time I’ve seen before. All expressions of overvaluation are at historical
extremes. Despite this, most money managers remain in the market. The thesis is
“if it’s going up, regardless of anything else, I want to be in it.” Perhaps
the best indicator of complacency is the VIX which at its current level of 13
tells us that investors see no reason to protect their positions. Every minor
decline is seen as a buying opportunity. The rationale is that the Fed would
not allow anything worse than a 10% decline. If the stock market starts sinking
between now and October 1st, I will be most interested to see if the Fed
eliminates QE.
Richard Russell,
90-year-old publisher of the Dow Theory since 1958.
Archives
The Magic Wand of Liquidity Page (05/18/20)
Fiend's Bear Encounters (1939-42, 1973-74,
1981-82) Page
DJIA, adv/dec, and momentum data
from 1990 to 05/15/20
Market Top of 1968 Revisited
Business Week's The Death of Equities Revisited
Tj's Financial Cartoon Gallery
Miki's Portraits of Some
Bulls of the Millennium
This page was last updated on May 22, 2020.
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